Does demography, behind economic and social conditions, have a role to play in predicting where and when will uprisings, revolutions and even war happen?
Yes, says the Romanian sociologist Sebastian Lazaroiu, who explains the fine connection between the number of young men and of young women at the age of marriage at any given moment in one country and the social tensions in that respective country. What happens when in a country, say Romania, there are more men at the age of marriage in one year than women ready to get married? Anything raging from sexual violence to social instability to increase in number of gangs and in number of violent crimes, says Lazaroiu. This imbalance on the matrimonial market called “marriage squeeze” by the experts can even lead to more wars since a country in question would have more single men who could become troops for their military forces.
Looking at the number of girls and boys who will reach their marriage age in 2019, the sociologist foresees that in that year there will be approximately 160.000 young Romanian men that won’t be able to find a wife due to the decreased number of women at the age of marriage. So should you then make some basic calculations trying to find out if there will be a marriage squeeze in your country in the near future? Yes, if you focus on long term policies meant to maintain social stability and well-being of your citizens. No, if you think you won’t be leading the country in that year anyway and if you are too caught in dealing with the results of the financial and economic crisis. Unfortunately, probably most of the governments would go for the second answers. Which means that we will keep witnessing great revolts in different countries that will experience a marriage squeeze. Did anybody see it coming?
On the inside: