4) The next welfare state

Columnist of the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, professor at the faculty of Politics at the University of Milan, Maurizio Ferrera dedicated a large part of his career to study and analyse welfare evolution in Italy and Europe. In this talk he gives our readers a portrait in light and shadow of the welfare State in the old continent.

Immigration seems to create problems to the welfare state and to mine social democrats parties’ strength, that on it had built up their success. Right movements seem to provide solutions more appreciated by the voters. The recent Swedish case is emblematic in this sense. Are we now watching a redefinition of the relationships between right and left, where immigration is the motivating factor?

I believe that the impact of immigration is one of the most relevant reasons to explain the fall of social democracy appeal and of centre-left parties in European countries, because, as you said, a period of crisis and a growing economic polarization between low and high skills could bring the lowest classes, which are more damaged by internationalization and globalization processes, to vote those parties and groups that traditionally have tried to improve lower classes conditions.

The problem from a social and politic point of view seems to me this one: inside the electoral pool of workers mostly exposed to the risks due by internalization and European integration it s not easy to understand exactly the reasons for this trend. On the other hand, immigration processes are pretty clears. This is also because the immigration has reached an high scale of nearness: immigrants live in our neighbours, we can see them in the public transports, around in the streets; and some immigrants are actually more integrated in the social fabric.

Well, there are also problems with public order, which sometimes get exasperated by media, anyway beside the legal immigration, which is visible but does not really bother, there is the whole illegal immigration. And it is difficult, even in this case, for a standard voter to distinguish between who is illegal and who is not. So, it becomes easier to put everyone into the same basket and the outcome is that large majorities of voters, in all European countries, and with special intensity between lower classes, convey great worry despite migrant waves.

During the Swedish electoral campaign a poster of the Swedish social democrats party (a far-right party, editor’s note) has appeared, it had two panels: in one could be seen a queue of immigrants trying to enter in Sweden or to obtain an unemployment or familiar benefit and in the other panel there were Swedish elders queuing, while going to the welfare office to ask for their pension. Each of the panel had an handle – like those of the trains for the emergency stop – to stop the other queue: pensioner’s handle to stop immigrants’ queue, immigrants’ handle to stop pensioners’ queue: everything was thought to give the idea of a tradeoff between welfare for natives and benefits for immigrants. This kind of image really impress the standard voter.

In your opinion, which is the weight of the rude, economic evidence, of an immigration always more present in the world of work and how much, instead, can weigh the lack of elaboration or updating from a political and symbolic point of view of social democracy?

Actually, the economic aspect doesn’t weigh too much, but it is not easy for social democracy to spread this message. On the whole, in add, it is true that immigrants– regulars, obviously – contribution to public budget by paying taxes and the National insurance, is higher than what they get in terms of benefits at least for now.

However, it is also true that, the asymmetry against immigrants becomes an asymmetry in favour of them in specific sector: it is the case, for instance, of unemployment benefits, as they are often the first ones to be fired. In this sector there are some statistical data coming from Sweden: for regular immigrants the balance between contributions and benefits is not in their favour as they take more of what they pay for 50%. It is also true that in Scandinavian countries, there have been registered situations in which some figures of immigrants, to exploit some legislative loopholes, committed what my Scandinavian colleagues have called “social raid”, finalized to get benefit without having the right or the real need: for instance, members of the family invited to join the country just to get the benefits, who after this, come back to their home countries continuing to receive family cheques. This facts have a strong echo on medias and contribute to create the image of the faker immigrants. You’re right when you say that in general, it doesn’t work this way. But politics doesn’t often use double entry tables as people might not understand.

Which perspective for European welfare? Do you believe that there will be the chance to develop a EU minimum welfare standard?

It depends on what we mean by minimum welfare standard. There is also a cooperation plan – the so-called open method of coordination- in the field of social protection, which promotes the alignment of social policies for pensions, health and social inclusion towards similar standards.

Each one of this coordination processes is inspired by a series of goals, which sometimes are more than minimum standards and which should guide reforms and adaptation to welfare systems. For example, in the field of pensions sustainability can not be the only standard, also suitability has to be considered; in social inclusion field, we should consider the right of having enough resources: important have already been fixed inside these processes and after Lisbon also thanks to the acknowledgment of a full legal value to the fundamental rights Charter, which includes also social rights. Both national that European Court of justice judges might refer to the Chart, even in case of evident violation of the same principle of the open method of coordination. We are not very far from a minimum standard, somehow we have already got it.